Gold macro report — 24 September 2026

Published by RM Intelligence · Data compiled 24 Sep 2026, 19:52 UTC · Regime read: Mixed — wait for alignment

XAU/USD

4,275.00

-9.23 (-0.22%) vs prior close

Week / month

-2.1%

-8.21% over one month

US 10Y real yield

2.76%

Treasury · 2026-09-23

US Dollar Index

101.29

+0.98% on the week

Summary

Spot gold (XAU/USD) was at 4,275.00, down 9.23 (-0.22%) against the prior session close of 4,284.23.

Over the past week gold moved -2.06% and over the past month -8.21%. It trades below its 20-day average (4,390.15) and below its 50-day average (4,313.78).

Momentum: 14-day RSI 25.0. Volatility: 14-day ATR 98.07 USD/oz. The 20-session range runs 4,239.48–4,660.52; the 52-week range 3,720.03–5,541.99.

The U.S. 10-year real yield stood at 2.76% (Treasury, 2026-09-23). Higher real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

The US Dollar Index was 101.29 (+0.98% on the week), above its 20-day average.

Gold implied volatility (GVZ) was 22.64, below its 20-day average of 25.75.

CFTC data for the week to 2026-07-14 show managed money net long 120,779 COMEX gold contracts. This is weekly futures positioning, not OTC spot flow. Note: this is the latest report our feed holds, about 72 days old, so treat it as stale.

RM Intelligence's macro-factor model reads gold as fairly valued versus real yields, the dollar and volatility (residual z-score -0.67, model fair value 4,526.47).

Overall read: Mixed — wait for alignment. This is a research summary of public data, not a trading instruction.

Regime filters

Filter	Read	Evidence
Trend (daily close vs 20/50-day averages)	Headwind	Price 4,275.00 vs SMA20 4,390.15 and SMA50 4,313.78
US dollar (DXY vs its 20-day average)	Headwind	DXY 101.29 vs 20-day 99.67; +0.98% on the week
Macro-factor residual (RM model)	Mixed	z-score -0.67 (neutral); fair value 4,526.47

A constructive read needs every filter to agree. Anything less is treated as “mixed — wait for alignment”.

Price structure

Prior session close	4,284.23
20-day simple moving average	4,390.15
50-day simple moving average	4,313.78
14-day RSI	25.0
14-day average true range (USD/oz)	98.07
20-session range	4,239.48 – 4,660.52
52-week range	3,720.03 – 5,541.99

Macro drivers

US 10-year real yield (Treasury par curve)	2.76%
US Dollar Index (DXY) · 20-day average	101.29 · 99.67
Gold volatility (GVZ) · 20-day average	22.64 · 25.75
US CPI, year over year (August 2026) · core	3.35% · 2.45%
CFTC managed money net, COMEX gold (week to 2026-07-14)	120,779 contracts (stale)
RM macro-factor model: residual z-score · fair value	-0.67 · 4,526.47

How the model works: methodology, Pillar B.

Sources

gold-api.com · XAU/USD live spot — Live XAU/USD reference price
COMEX GC=F daily candles (Yahoo Finance public chart data), scaled to spot — Trend, momentum and range statistics
US Dollar Index (ICE DXY) daily closes — Dollar filter
CBOE Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) — Implied volatility regime
U.S. Treasury daily par real yield curve — 10-year real yield
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI — Inflation backdrop
CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders — COMEX Gold (futures only) — Speculative positioning
RM Intelligence four-pillar model (multi-factor regression) — Rich / cheap versus macro drivers

This report is compiled automatically from the public data listed above using fixed rules; every sentence is generated from a number on this page. Gold price structure uses COMEX gold futures candles scaled to the live spot reference. Reference prices are not executable. Research only — not investment advice.

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