Gold macro report — 25 September 2026

Published by RM Intelligence · Data compiled 25 Sep 2026, 21:09 UTC · Regime read: Mixed — wait for alignment

XAU/USD

4,286.20

+22.42 (+0.53%) vs prior close

Week / month

-2.4%

-7.15% over one month

US 10Y real yield

2.83%

Treasury · 2026-09-25

US Dollar Index

101.03

+0.81% on the week

Summary

Spot gold (XAU/USD) was at 4,286.20, up 22.42 (+0.53%) against the prior session close of 4,263.78.

Over the past week gold moved -2.36% and over the past month -7.15%. It trades below its 20-day average (4,372.35) and below its 50-day average (4,319.87).

Momentum: 14-day RSI 31.9. Volatility: 14-day ATR 93.43 USD/oz. The 20-session range runs 4,239.28–4,650.67; the 52-week range 3,722.03–5,541.72.

The U.S. 10-year real yield stood at 2.83% (Treasury, 2026-09-25). Higher real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

The US Dollar Index was 101.03 (+0.81% on the week), above its 20-day average.

Gold implied volatility (GVZ) was 22.44, below its 20-day average of 25.36.

CFTC data for the week to 2026-09-22 show managed money net long 127,389 COMEX gold contracts (−5,727 on the week). This is weekly futures positioning, not OTC spot flow.

RM Intelligence's macro-factor model reads gold as fairly valued versus real yields, the dollar and volatility (residual z-score -0.68, model fair value 4,552.43).

Overall read: Mixed — wait for alignment. This is a research summary of public data, not a trading instruction.

Regime filters

Filter	Read	Evidence
Trend (daily close vs 20/50-day averages)	Headwind	Price 4,286.20 vs SMA20 4,372.35 and SMA50 4,319.87
US dollar (DXY vs its 20-day average)	Headwind	DXY 101.03 vs 20-day 99.83; +0.81% on the week
Macro-factor residual (RM model)	Mixed	z-score -0.68 (neutral); fair value 4,552.43

A constructive read needs every filter to agree. Anything less is treated as “mixed — wait for alignment”.

Price structure

Prior session close	4,263.78
20-day simple moving average	4,372.35
50-day simple moving average	4,319.87
14-day RSI	31.9
14-day average true range (USD/oz)	93.43
20-session range	4,239.28 – 4,650.67
52-week range	3,722.03 – 5,541.72

Macro drivers

US 10-year real yield (Treasury par curve)	2.83%
US Dollar Index (DXY) · 20-day average	101.03 · 99.83
Gold volatility (GVZ) · 20-day average	22.44 · 25.36
US CPI, year over year (August 2026) · core	3.35% · 2.45%
CFTC managed money net, COMEX gold (week to 2026-09-22)	127,389 contracts
RM macro-factor model: residual z-score · fair value	-0.68 · 4,552.43

How the model works: methodology, Pillar B.

Sources

gold-api.com · XAU/USD live spot — Live XAU/USD reference price
COMEX GC=F daily candles (Yahoo Finance public chart data), scaled to spot — Trend, momentum and range statistics
US Dollar Index (ICE DXY) daily closes — Dollar filter
CBOE Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) — Implied volatility regime
U.S. Treasury daily par real yield curve — 10-year real yield
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI — Inflation backdrop
CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders — COMEX Gold (futures only) — Speculative positioning
RM Intelligence four-pillar model (multi-factor regression) — Rich / cheap versus macro drivers

Audit ledger anchor

When this report was built, RM Intelligence's tamper-evident audit ledger held 9 sealed entries with head hash 5ec1ce53c3c86c4cab3e1c5a35ba981bb63bfad79984c57ed58d165e9a85a0a1. Publishing the head here each day means earlier records cannot be rewritten without contradicting this archived page.

This report is compiled automatically from the public data listed above using fixed rules; every sentence is generated from a number on this page. Gold price structure uses COMEX gold futures candles scaled to the live spot reference. Reference prices are not executable. Research only — not investment advice.

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